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Did Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM divide Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh?

The analysis by revealed that only 01 AIMIM candidate came on the second position whereas the rest all ended up at 4th or even 7th, 8th and 11th positions bagging less than 10,000 votes

Monday March 13, 2017 6:48 PM, & Agencies

Asaduddin Owaisi

Speculations and allegations that Asauddin Owaisi is Amit Shah's man and he is contesting elections to divide Muslim votes and help BJP in its agenda of creating 'Congress mukt Bharat' are raised during and after every elections.

A debate on the topic, underway ever since Asauddin Owaisi jumped into the electoral battle of Uttar Pradesh, intensified after the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) won the key state of Hindi belt with a roaring mandate.

Knifes are out against Asaduddin Owaisi in Urdu media and messages taking rounds in various social media sites with majority of the writers and social media hawks blaming the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) Chief and Hyderabad MP or playing a role for the resounding victory of BJP candidates in the Uttar Pradesh elections.

A detailed analysis by of 35 of the total 38 constituencies where the AIMIM contested the elections however revealed the opposite, and showed that it was actually Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) which ate into each other's votes and paved the smooth run for the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).

The analysis also revealed that there are at least 02 seats in these 35 where the Congress candidates made sure that the Samajwadi Party (SP) candidates are defeated even though they formed alliance to contest the Uttar Pradesh elections.

The analysis also revealed that only 01 AIMIM candidate came on the second position whereas the rest all ended up at 4th or even 7th, 8th and 11th positions bagging less than 10,000 votes.

The constituency where the AIMIM candidate Ziaurrehman came second is Sambhal and he was defeated by Iqbal Mehmood of Samajwadi Party. Iqbal Mehmood polled 79,248 votes and Ziaurrehman got 60,426 votes and came second.

Dr Arvind of BJP with 59,976 votes is a close second and Rafatullah Ansari of BSP secured the 4th position in Sambhal with 36,705 votes in Sambhal.

The other Assembly seat where AIMIM candidate performed well is Kanth. Here Fizaullah Chaudhry of AIMIM got 22,908 votes. But, he was still far behind the winning candidate RRajesh Kumar Sing of BJP who bagged 79,307 votes.

Aneesurrehman of SP with 73,959 votes and Mohd. Nasir of BSP with 43,820 votes respectively came 2nd and 3rd in Kanth Assembly constituency.

The two constituencies where the Congress candidates helped the BJP win the elections defeating the Samajwadi Party candidates are Koil and Lucknow Central.

In Lucknow Central Assembly constituency, Ravidas Mehrotra of SP is defeated by Brijesh Pathak of BJP by some 5,000 votes. Ravidas Mehrotra polled 73,306 votes and Brijesh Pathak got 78,400 votes. The Congress candidate Abdul Maroof Khan bagged 12,921 votes and stamped the defeat of SP candidate in Lucknow Central seat.

The AIMIM candidate in Lucknow Central Mohammad Irfan polled 2,314 votes whereas Rajeev Srivastava of the BSP got 24,313 votes.

In Koil Assembly constituency, Anil Parashar of BJP polled 93,814 votes and defeated Shaz Ishaq of SP who got 42,851 votes and Vivek Bansal of Congress who got 38,623 votes. The BSP candidate in Koil constituency was Ram Kumar Sharma who got 37,909 votes.

The AIMIM had fielded Parvez Khan in Koil. But, he git just 463 votes and ended at the 9th position.

Likewise in Firozabad City, Agra South, Hasanpur, Bilgram Mallanwan and Badaun Assembly constituencies the total votes polled by the SP and BSP candidates are more than the winning candidates of the BJP. In all these 05 constituencies the AIMIM candidates came 4th and 6th and polled less than 03,000 votes.

Going by the details, Manish Asija of BJP got 102,654 votes in Firozabad City whereas Azim Bhai of SP and Khalid Nisar of BSP polled 60,927 and 51,387 votes respectively. The AIMIM candidate Ahtesham Ali here got just 114 votes.

In Agra South, Yogendra Upadhyaya of BJP won securing a total of 111,882 votes. BSP Candidate Zulfikar Ahmad abd Nazir Ahmed of Congress respectively got 57,657 and 39,434 votes. Idaris Ansari of AIMIM ended at 11th position with 232 votes.

In Hasanpur constituency, Mahendra Singh Khadakvanshi of BJP got 111,269 votes and defeated Kamal Akhtar of SP (83,499 votes) and Gangasaran Khadgvansi of BSP (51,930 votes). AIMIM candidate Naushad Ali bagged just 1,235 votes.

Detailed polling record of Badaun Assembly seat showed that Mahesh Chandra Gupta of BJP won the seat getting 87,314 votes. He defeated Abid Raza Khan of SP who polled 70,847 votes and Bhupendra Singh of BSP who got 32,641 votes. Khalid Pervaiz of AIMIM came 7th with 883 votes in Badaun.

In Khalilabad Assembly seat, Dr Mohammad Ayub of Peace Party got 42,041 votes and lost the election to Digvijay Narayan Alis Jay Chaubey of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) who got 72,061 votes. Here Mashoor Alam Choudhary of BSP and Javed Ahmad of SP polled 56,024 and 28,274 votes respectively whereas AIMIM candidate Tafsirullah bagged just 2,578 votes.

The most closely fought contest was in Bilgram Mallanwan constituency. Here Ashish Kumar Singh Ashu and Anurag Mishra of BSP bothe polled 83,405 votes and election commission declared Ashish Kumar SIngh Ashu of BJP as winner. But Subhash Pal of SP bagged 75,380 votes here and paved the victory of BJP candidate. AIMIM candidate in Bilgram Mallanwan got just 2,716 votes.

Likewise AIMIM candidate Karmveer Azad got 1,141 votes in Mehnagar, Nisar Ahmed got 8,903 votes in Khadda, Haji Ali Ahmed got 4,931 votes in Sohratgarh, Mohammad Nizamullah Khan got 2,966 votes in Utraula, Manzoor Alam Khan got 3,160 votes in Gainsari, Kalim Khan got 2,933 votes in Shrawasti, Danish Jameel got 3,719 votes in Kaiserganj Bhraich, Mohd Akiullah got 1,226 votes in Matera, Irfan Pathan got 2,070 votes in Tanda, Juver Ahmad got 3,275 votes in Bikapur and Mohd. Abul Kalam Qureshi got just 708 votes in Barabanki.

Collectively, Asaduddin Owaisi led All India Majils-e-Itthadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) candidates could poll a meagre 205,232 votes i.e. 0.2% - a figure not enough to influence win or loss of any candidate.

The analysis confirms three things. One, the AIMIM did not play the spoiler for the SP, BSP and Congress the so-called secular parties but it was they who fought with each other and provided the BJP easy run in the elections.

Two, besides division of Muslim votes between SP and BSP, Hindu votes were solidly behind the BJP. It was the result of the propaganda by the BJP that the Muslims are rallying together to defeat the BJP and hence was able to consolidate Hindu voters in its favour.

Three, the myth of ‘tactical Muslim voting' was exposed as like the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and unlike what the community did in Bihar, the Muslims could not lend its weight to any one party. Its result is that out of 140 Assembly constituencies where Muslim population is 20% or above, the BJP won a huge 109 seats and its ally Apna Dal two. The SP won 23 and its ally Congress three, while the BSP got just two seats.



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