2024 YR4 asteroid now has 3.1% chance of hitting Earth

2024 YR4 - so far the most threatening asteroid ever recorded by modern forecasting, has more than doubled its chance of hitting Earth

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2024 YR4 - so far the most threatening asteroid ever recorded by modern forecasting, has more than doubled its chance of hitting Earth.

'City Killer'

2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. In terms of its size, it is estimated to be between 131 and 328 feet or 40 and 100 metres wide.

It is billed as "City Killer" because of its size range comparable to that of a large building and has a potential to level a city.

The world’s most populated seven cities - Mumbai, Kolkata, Dhaka, Bogotá, Abidjan, Lagos and Khartoum - are vulnerable.

Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid.

2024 YR4 chance of hitting Earth

Scientists had earlier estimtaed that 2024 YR4 has 1.2% chance of hitting Earth.

Based on the latest data, NASA Scientists now say the asteroid has 3.1% chance of hitting earth with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032.

"I'm not panicking," Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society told AFP.

"Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy and good," he added.

Bruce explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely increase before rapidly dropping to zero.

The last time an asteroid greater than 30 meters in size posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004 when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029 — a possibility later ruled out by additional observations.

Asteroid 99942 Apophis was nicknamed ‘God of Chaos’ and billed as one the most dangerous near Earth objects.

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