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Decoding the 'Sweeping Victory' of BJP in Uttar Pradesh Local Body Elections

Saturday December 2, 2017 5:36 PM, Amaresh Mishra,

UP Municipal Election Final Result

Independents won 225 seats out of 652 and emerged as the Single Largest Group ...

BJP loses the status of being even the Single Largest Party ...

This infinitely, is a bigger scam than demonetisation, selling India to Ambani, Adani, foreign nations and foreign capital. 

This is a bigger scam than Modi drinking tea with Nawaz Sharif in a blatant act of cynicism when our Jawans were being killed at the order.

You must have heard of booth capturing, rigging etc. But, how would you term an electoral exercise where the real results are hidden from the public, and only part result is presented as whole...

Where a Parallel False 'Reality' is created to counter the 'Real Reality'

BJP's measly, victory of the gutter, just 14 out 16 in urban hubs, is being presented as a victory! Where is Shekhar Gupta, where is Prakash Bhanu Mehta, where is Abhisar Sharma, where is that... that... man... Prannoy Roy .... where is Rajdeep Sardesai... where is Arvind Kejriwal... where is Radhika Ramseshan, where is Burkha Dutt... where is Abhisar Sharma... where the hell are u guys hiding?

What are you guys afraid of? 

None of you have had the guts to at least present real facts of UP civic polls before the people. 

Yesterday, the entire day, media kept raping facts... kept showing that BJP has won 14 out of 16 Municipal elections. 

Not a word about results of Nagar Parishad and Nagar Panchayat!  

Indian Express, Times of India, Hindustan Times, Tribune, Dainik Jagran, Aaj Tak, Zee, NDTV, CNN-IBN, and yes, First Post, second post, third post ...

I call out for justice... Here are the Real Figures

Nagar Panchayat (Town Area) Presidents: 438/438

Independents: 182
BJP: 100
SP: 83
BSP: 45
Congress: 17
AAP: 2
Rashtriya Janata Dal: 2
Rashtriya Lok Dal: 3
Unrecognised Party: 2 

Nagar Palika Parishad (City Municipal Council) Presidents : 198/198

BJP: 70
SP: 45
Independents: 43
BSP: 29
Congress: 9
CPI: 1
Ad hoc registered party: 1

Nagar Nigam (City Municipal Corporation) President: 16

BJP: 14
BSP: 2

(Source: Election Commission)

WAIT...the best is yet to come ...

Out of 652 seats, BJP gets 184 seats... and who gets the maximum?

Bloody hell! It is the Independents!!!! 

Yes. Independents win 225 seats out of 652 and emerged as the Single Largest Group!

SP emerged as the third party with 128 seats out of 652...

BSP emerged in the fourth position with 76 seats out of 652... again, BSP has re-gained some of its Dalit votes... But overall, sliding behind SP must have given it cold comfort...

Now, let us see the voting pattern

Out of the total population of 22 crores, 8 crores were eligible to vote in the 3 tiers.

Polling was 52.4% ... again, roughly, a little over 04 crore votes were polled.

2.65 crore votes were polled in 438 Nagar Panchayats, 35 lakh  in 16 Corporations, 01 Crore in 198 Nagar Palika Parishads..

BJP winning 14 out of 16 Corporations - in all 16 seats BJP scored 87% votes whereas BSP 12.5%.

So 87% of 35 Lakh would be close to 30 Lakhs.

In Nagar Palika Parishad, 70 seats got by BJP fetched it 35.5% of the vote. SP polled 22.5 % and BSP 14.65% while Congress polled 4.5%. Independents polled 21.72% of the votes polled.

35.5% votes polled by BJP in Nagar Palika Parishad out of the total of 01 crore votes, amounts to 35 lakhs.

In the 2.65 crore votes polled in Nagar Panchayats, BJP with just 100 seats out of 438 could manage only 22% of the vote!

In this segment, Independents polled 41.55% of the votes. SP polled 18.95% and BSP polled 10.27%. Congress vote share stood at 3.88%...

Now how much is 22% of 2.5 crores? Around 58 lakhs... and how much 41.55% of 2.5 crore votes? 1.7 crore.

So, in toto, BJP polled 1,23,00,000 votes out of 40000000. How much is that in percentage terms? 30%!!!!!!!!!

In 2017 assembly elections, BJP polled 42% of the vote. It had swept rural areas. Now its share has come down to 30%! 

This is my challenge

If General Elections are held today in Uttar Pradesh, BJP will get 30-34 MP seats and between 158-162 assembly seats! That's It.....

Now the same thing is going to play out in Gujarat.... Mark my words... BJP is polling 30-33% votes in Gujarat. Which means it will come down to below 60 seats.

And here, I have not even taken into account the massive manipulation of Nagar Nigam results, the faulty EVMs, tho who jingbang brought into play by Modi. 

Basically, BJP faces the revolt of the 'Aam Aadmi' in Uttar Pradesh. Brahmins, Muslims, Yadavs and Dalits voted generally against the BJP.

With few exceptions, BJP lost entire seats in Nagar Panchayats in Basti, Gonda, Chitrokoot, Allahabad, Mirzapur, Barabanki, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Kausambi, Fatehpur, Farukkhabad, Firozabad on and on... Amethi was with BJP last time also... No big deal.

This loss is a fatal blow for Yogi Adityanath.

Imagine BJP trailing behind Independents!! The latter trend opens the floodgates for the rise of new forces in Uttar Pradesh!!!!

[The writer, Amaresh Mishra, is a renowned historian based in Lucknow.]

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