Asteroid 2024 YR to skip Earth could hit Moon

The asteroid 2024 YR, whose chance to hitting Earth lowered to almost zero, is now have an alarmingly high chance of striking Moon

The asteroid 2024 YR, whose chance to hitting Earth lowered to almost zero, is now have an alarmingly high chance of striking Moon.

2024 YR4

The 2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27, 2024 by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile. In terms of its size, it is estimated to be between 131 and 328 feet or 40 and 100 metres wide.

The field size asteroid 2024 YR, billed as ‘City Killer’ because of its size originally had 1.2% chance of hitting the Earth.

The ESA later increased the asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth to 2.8% and NASA upgraded it to 3.1%. The impact date would have been December 22, 2032 — but it is now extremely likely the asteroid will simply zoom past Earth with ESA downgrading its 'meeting' with Earth to almost zero.

2024 YR Chances of Striking Moon

Based on the latest data received from James Webb Telescope (JWS), NASA on April 02, 2025 said 2024 YR has 3.8% chance of hitting Moon.

This is up from a 1.8%, or a 1-in-56 chance, back in February. It means the odds of a Moon strike have more than doubled.

About the Moon location, NASA said the asteroid could strike near the Moon’s limb, or edge. About the date and time, NASA estimates December 22, 2032 – the same was projected for Earth strike.

As per the latest update, asteroid 2024 YR4 is 116 million miles (188 million km) away and getting farther every second.

Some observers noticed the asteroid will be somewhat “close” to the Lucy spacecraft, so its team checked to see if 2024 YR4 would be observable by the spacecraft. But – at its closest to Lucy – the asteroid will still be too faint for the spacecraft’s L’LORRI instrument to detect, according to EarthSky.org.

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