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A landslide victory in last month's
local elections has heightened the United Democratic Front's (UDF)
hopes of returning to power in Kerala in next year's assembly
elections but the Congress, which heads the alliance, may be
exulting too soon. Its position is not as rosy as it imagines.
The credit for the UDF victory belongs not so much to the Congress
as to its allies who helped consolidate minority support behind
the UDF after the Communist Party of India- Marxist (CPI-M), which
heads the rival Left Democratic Front (LDF), antagonised Muslims
and Christians.
Kerala had created history in 1957 by voting the undivided
Communist Party to office. It created history again in 1959 by
staging a 'liberation struggle', which provided the centre with
the excuse to dismiss the Communist government while it enjoyed
majority support in the assembly.
The local election vote was 'liberation' by other means. All the
forces which had joined hands in 1959 to oust the Communists from
power came together again to end their reign over local bodies.
The only exception was the Nair Service Society, the forward Hindu
community's organization, which now officially follows a policy of
equidistance from the two fronts.
In the local elections of 2004, the LDF had secured control of all
five city corporations, 12 of the 14 district panchayats, a large
majority of the municipalities and block panchayats and two-thirds
of the village panchayats. This year, for the first time, the UDF
seized control of a majority of local bodies at all levels with
the exception of city corporations, where the LDF was able to
retain a slender 3-2 lead.
The LDF victory in the 2006 assembly poll came as a hat-trick
after successive wins in the Lok Sabha and local elections. In the
past three decades, people have voted the LDF and the UDF to power
in the state alternately. After successive drubbings in Lok Sabha
and local elections, the LDF now faces the possibility of a
reverse hat-trick.
The local elections victory has boosted the image of the state
Congress leadership, now firmly in the hands of Leader of
Opposition Oommen Chandy and Pradesh Congress Committee president
Ramesh Chennithala.
For decades, the party had witnessed continuous infighting between
an 'I' faction, named for Indira Gandhi, and an 'A' faction, named
for A.K. Antony. Oommen Chandy inherited the 'A' faction when
Antony moved to the centre. Ramesh Chennithala, a former protege
of K. Karunakaran, gathered around him the remnants of the 'I'
faction when the veteran walked out of the party, peeved with his
neglect by the high command. With Sonia Gandhi backing them to the
hilt, the Chandy-Chennithala 'jodi' established a condominium.
Karunakaran, 92, is back in the party but too old and weak to
challenge the duo, whose clout is evident from the way they have
delayed the return of his son and former state Congress president
K. Muraleedharan. He had left the party with Karunakaran but did
not return with him. When he finally expressed readiness to return
Chandy and Chennithala reacted coolly and the high command did not
want to go against their wishes.
While the Chandy-Chennithala combine is in an unassailable
position within the Congress, the party's position in the UDF has
weakened. The party's electoral performance under them pales into
insignificance beside the strides made by its partners, the Indian
Union Muslim League and the Kerala Congress (Mani).
The League is in a position to wield power on its own in many
local bodies in its stronghold, the Muslim-majority Malappuram
district, which happens to be the most populous one in the state.
Unable to agree on the division of seats, the Congress and the
League had opposed each other in some parts of the district. The
League trounced the Congress in those areas. That puts the League
in a commanding position.
In areas with a concentration of Christians, the Kerala Congress
similarly outperformed the Congress. Its leader, K.M. Mani, had
once described the party as one that "splits as it grows, and
grows as it splits". He recently strengthened it by wooing back
the breakaway factions led by P.J. Joseph and P.C. George, which
were in the LDF during the last assembly elections and had helped
it attract Christian votes.
Across the state, the UDF polled 15.65 lakh votes more than the
LDF. Malappuram alone contributed a lead of more than four lakhs.
Kottayam and Ernakulam districts, which have significant Christian
populations, provided a lead of more than three lakhs.
The Church, which runs many schools and colleges, was annoyed with
the LDF government's education policy. It reportedly played a role
in the merger of the Kerala Congress factions. The CPI-M distanced
itself from its former Muslim supporters since the Lok Sabha
results showed that the association with some of them had cost it
many votes. The bid to make up the loss of minority votes by
appealing to majority sentiments did not succeed.
The change of government in the state every five years has been
made possible by a swing of the pendulum in the southern districts
of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam and Alappuzha. As the minority
parties command little influence in the region, elections there
are a direct trial of strength between the CPI-M and the Congress.
The LDF's lead of about 80,000 votes over the UDF in these
districts is something the Congress has to worry about.
(B.R.P. Bhaskar
can be contacted at brpbhaskar@gmail.com)
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