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It's a Third Front with a
difference. While the earlier versions were non-Congress non-Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) combinations, the group conjured up by Baba
Ramdev at Delhi's Ramlila grounds included the BJP. However, its
similarities with the basic concept of the Third Front were,
first, a pronounced anti-Congress thrust and, secondly, the
presence under the yoga guru's umbrella of parties like the Telugu
Desam Party (TDP), the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaje Party (BSP),
the Communist Party of India (CPI), the Akali Dal, the Shiv Sena,
et al.
Notwithstanding the apparently formidable nature of the
combination on the surface, the Congress however may not be too
worried because of the inchoate characteristic of the new
formation. For a start, the Baba does not want to launch a
political party - yet. At the moment, his focus is on cornering
the government on the black money issue. It is the same with the
BJP and other parties, which have clarified that their support for
the Baba is confined to the question of the funds stashed abroad.
It is, however, unclear whether this fine-tuning can be a
politically effective tactic. Instead, the general suspicion will
be that these parties have jumped on to the yoga guru's bandwagon
because of their inability to present - either singly or together
- a credible challenge to the Congress and the government.
As it is, the differences between these parties became obvious
during the presidential election when the Janata Dal-United (JD-U)
and the Shiv Sena broke away from the BJP to back the Congress'
Pranab Mukherjee. Even now, there is little doubt that the
Samajwadi Party and the BSP will continue to support the Congress
in parliament despite their brief dalliance with Ramdev.
Given the oddity of the CPI's support for a Hindu religious
mascot, it is unlikely that the party will continue to back him
even if the issue is only black money. True, both the CPI and its
Big Brother, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), had
joined Anna on his Jantar Mantar stage along with the BJP. But
Ramdev's proximity to the saffron brotherhood is even closer than
that of Anna considering that the fiery Muslim-baiter, Sadhvi
Rithambara, had once appeared with the yoga teacher at the Ramlila
grounds.
There is, therefore, every likelihood of many of those who turned
up at Ramdev's "circus", to quote Press Council chief Justice
Markandeya Katju, will gradually drift away lest their hobnobbing
with the yoga guru should scare away their Muslim supporters.
Among the parties which will be extremely wary of this possibility
is the JD-U, for it will realise that its flaunting of secular
credentials by criticising Narendra Modi may be neutralised if it
moves too close to Ramdev.
As for the Baba himself, his objective is still unclear. Since he
is unlikely to float a political party like Team Anna, or go on
fasts-unto-death like the crusader from Ralegan Siddhi, the
fighter against black money will have to firm up his game plan
soon if he wants to remain in the public eye. All that he has done
so far is to step into the vacuum that was created when Anna
retired hurt from the scene.
As the crowds at his "circus" showed, his popularity among his
followers is considerable. Even then, the size of the gathering -
though much larger than what Anna was able to attract towards the
closing stages of his movement - was still not large enough to
trouble the government too much.
What is more, despite his ability to draw larger crowds than what
Anna could in recent months, Ramdev lacks the Ralegan Siddhi
crusader's moral stature. Because of his large and thriving
business ventures and the fact that one of his associates is
currently in jail, the Baba is seen to be no different from the
many similarly successful godmen who dot the scene and
occasionally consort with politicians.
The large crowds at his shows evidently made him think of a
political future. But, now, he is not so sure. Anna's travails
must have warned him of the pitfall of a political adventure. So,
he is giving a helping hand to the BJP and other non-Congress
parties. But it is an uneasy relationship where each is trying to
ascertain what he can get out of the other without damaging his
own position.
The government, on its part, seems to have finally found an
effective way to deal with these agitations by ignoring them. It
has evidently learnt from the mistakes it made by rushing senior
ministers to receive Ramdev at the Delhi airport last year or
inviting Team Anna to a joint meeting on the Lokpal bill. Its
latest tactic is to adopt a hands-off attitude where official
contacts are concerned and leave it to a few ministers to make
sarcastic comments. Who will have the last word in this
cat-and-mouse game is difficult to predict.
(Amulya Ganguli
is a political analyst. He can be reached at amulyaganguli@gmail.com)
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