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Every dark cloud has a silver
lining. In the present political scenario in India, at least three
such streaks of light can be discerned. One is that the government
is not in immediate danger. It may not last till 2014. But the
moment of its fall will not be all that politically
disadvantageous if the government's present overdrive on reforms
revives the "animal spirits" in the economy, as Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh has promised. In that event, the economic buoyancy
can enable it to cross the electoral Rubicon.
Secondly, what is of considerable significance is that for the
first time in the eight years of UPA-1 and UPA-2, the government
and the Congress party are on the same page on reforms. For
reasons which will be mentioned later, the suspected differences
between the "neo-liberal" prime minister and the "socialist" party
chief have disappeared. As is already evident, this unity of
perception has marked the end of the earlier policy paralysis.
Thirdly, for all the bluster of the opposition parties, they
remain as disunited as ever. To make matters worse, a fresh dose
of uncertainty has been introduced in their camp by the sudden
arousal of Mulayam Singh Yadav's prime ministerial ambition. So,
now, there are at least five contenders for the coveted post in
the opposition's ranks - Mulayam Singh Yadav, Narendra Modi,
Sushma Swaraj, Nitish Kumar and that never-say-die aspirant, L.K.
Advani.
What this means is that the opposition's eagerness for an early
election will be tempered by uneasiness about the unseemly
scramble for the top post which the announcement will entail. If
anything, this jostling cannot but give breathing space to the
Congress.
To avail itself of this opportunity, the Congress will not only
have to push ahead vigorously with the reforms but also explain in
great detail their rationale, which the prime minister did in his
address to the nation on Friday night where he sought people's
support for the "hard decisions" ahead. The reason for Manmohan
Singh and his band of reformers like Finance Minister
P.Chidambaram and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh
Ahluwalia to don the hats of teachers is that the party is facing
opponents who are driven solely by blind dogma and a myopic
outlook, which is oblivious of economic imperatives.
As much is evident from the acts of the Left, which withdrew
support to the government on the nuclear deal in 2008, and the
Trinamool Congress, which has now withdrawn support on the
question of reforms.
While the Left was guided by an obsessive anti-Americanism, the
Trinamool Congress is motivated by populist considerations where
there is no room for the economic compulsions of balancing the
budget or for the factors of globalisation which integrates the
modern world.
Not only that, this blinkered vision is compounded by the
Trinamool Congress's belief that it has to take up a position more
to the left of the communists to outflank them, not least because
the latter still has the support of 40 percent of the West Bengal
voters. What is missing in these calculations, based on an
inadequate appreciation of economic realities and the need for
crafty political manoeuvres, is a broad national vision.
Only such clear-sightedness, which recognizes the limitations of
the earlier experiments with a controlled economy, can lead to an
understanding of the need for deregulation and the end of statism.
But, if the Left purposefully rejects the new economic agenda for
ideological reasons - although the CPI-M's Buddhadev Bhattacharjee
realised the necessity of a change of line when he was West Bengal
chief minister - parties like the Trinamool Congress are too
preoccupied with their local political requirements to widen their
outlook. It is the same with other regional outfits like the
Samajwadi Party, the Janata Dal-United and the DMK.
The worst offender, however, is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),
which claims to be pro-reform. But an overwhelming desire to
corner the Congress has made it turn against a measure like FDI in
retail, which it had supported when in power. So, now, it has
adopted the jargon of the Left to blame the "foreign hand" for the
latest reforms, as Modi has done.
But there are signs of hope. While the Congress's allies like the
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the National Conference are
pro-reform, a change of mood is evident in the Biju Janata Dal's
decision to take a fresh look at FDI in retail. It is also known
that there are two views in the Akali Dal on the issue with Punjab
Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal favouring it.
What is of vital importance, however, is the Congress's decision
to shed its earlier hesitancy about reforms and stand fully behind
Manmohan Singh. There is little doubt that it is the plummeting
growth rate and dwindling investment which made the party realize
that there is no other path than reforms.
Amulya Ganguli is a
political analyst. He can be reached at amulyaganguli@gmail.com
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