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Survey gives advantage to BJP in states, 2014 Lok Sabha elections
Thursday October 31, 2013 10:50 PM, IANS

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is projected to win between 187 and 195 seats in the Lok Sabha polls on the back of gains from four poll-bound states, while the United Progressive Alliance tally could slip to between 134 and 142 seats, a survey says.

The CNN-IBN, The Week pre-poll survey conducted in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi, all of which go to the polls this year, said the results could cause a spike in the total tally of the NDA. Mizoram, where assembly polls will also be held later this year, was not included in the survey's ambit.

The survey, conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in the national capital, found that the BJP may trounce the Congress in four direct contest states in the Lok Sabha polls also.

"NDA (National Democratic Alliance) tally projected to rise between 187 and 195 Lok Sabha seats just by gains in four states, whereas UPA (United Progressive Alliance) tally projected to slip to between 134 and 142 Lok Sabha seats, just by losses in four states," a release said.

The survey said the Congress was projected to lose 28 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats that it won in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi in the 2009 general elections while the BJP was projected to add 27 seats to the 30 it won in the four states in 2009.

"Tracker projects BJP may win 57 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi and Congress may win only 12 of 72 LS seats in MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi," the release said.

According to the survey, Narendra Modi has gained as preferred prime ministerial candidate in the four poll-bound states with ratings going up from 26 percent in July to 35 percent in October.

Ratings for Rahul Gandhi, as preferred prime ministerial candidate in the four poll-bound states was up from 15 percent in July to 17 percent in October.

It said that there was no change in Manmohan Singh's approval ratings as preferred PM between July and October, which stood at five percent.

"In a direct contest, Modi leads Rahul as preferred PM (candidate); 45 percent back Modi against 29 percent for Rahul. Thirty nine percent respondents in the four poll-bound states also say Congress should declare Rahul as PM candidate and 36 percent respondents in the four states say they have no opinion on Rahul as PM candidate," the survey said.

It said that Modi's image among people is mostly that of a leader who takes strong decisions and who will develop the country.

"According to the pre-poll survey, 26 percent respondents feel Modi is a leader who takes good and strong decisions and 21 percent feel he is capable of developing the country. Only three percent people feel he is not suitable for leading a coalition government," the survey said.

The survey had earlier this week projected BJP retaining power in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, returning to power in Rajasthan and being ahead of Congress and Aam Aadmi Party in the three-way contest in Delhi.

According to projections of the survey in July this year, UPA was projected to win 149-157 seats and the NDA was projected to win 172-180 seats.

Interestingly, others including non-UPA and non-NDA parties were projected to win 208-216 seats both in July and October.

Assembly polls to the four states along with Mizoram will be held November-December. Lok Sabha polls are expected to be held in April-May next year.

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