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LensOnNews survey gives BJP 122 seats in Gujarat polls
Wednesday December 12, 2012 05:52:23 PM,
IANS
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New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to win a near two-thirds
majority of 122 seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly,
according to a survey released Wednesday.
The LensOnNews survey projected 53 seats for the Congress and just
one seat for former chief minister Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat
Parivartan Party (GPP). In the last election, the BJP had won 117
seats.
Six other seats could go to independents and other parties.
According to the survey, the BJP is likely to secure 46 percent
and the Congress 36 percent of votes, followed by six percent for
GPP.
These are findings of a statewide opinion poll conducted by
LensOnNews among a representative cross-sectional sample of 12,078
voters between Nov 28 and Dec 8.
According to the survey, the Keshubhai-led GPP has taken away from
the BJP a sizeable chunk of the numerically strong Leuva Patel
vote in the Sourashtra region.
"Yet, it has neither helped the GPP winning seats (except in
Visavadar where Keshubhai Patel is tipped to win) nor has it hurt
the BJP in Sourashtra," it said.
The projected tally for the BJP could swell beyond 130 seats if
the state records either a high voter turnout of over 65 percent
or the women's turnout matches or exceeds that of men, it said.
The survey said Chief Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed a
significantly higher popularity among women than men.
"Thus, higher participation of women in Gujarat can act as an
antidote to the local level anti-incumbency factor or the caste
factor ... on the strength of Modi's personal charisma."
It said the Congress was defensive throughout the campaign and
"showed some aggression" in speech only towards the end when
Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul descended on the
state.
It pointed out that the BJP had fielded strong candidates against
all important Congress leaders, forcing them to stay put in their
respective constituencies.
The first phase of Gujarat election will be held in 87
constituencies covering the entire Sourashtra region and south
Gujarat Thursday. Polling for the second phase will be held in 95
constituencies Dec 17.
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