Ummid Assistant

Applications open for Manmohan scholarship at Cambridge

IIM-Trichy to offer short courses too at Chennai centre

Welcome Guest! You are here: Home » Views & Analysis

Why Congress could not defeat Modi in Gujarat?

Sunday December 30, 2012 07:28:00 PM, Kaleem Kawaja,

In the wake of the just concluded Gujarat State Assembly election that Modi's Gujarat state BJP won, some people have said that if Congress party had tried real hard it could have defeated Modi's BJP. Is that a credible statement? Let us analyze the political background and the ground realities.

A few weeks before the polling many election observers had noted that Modi's BJP will win. The factors being:

a. A very large number of Gujarati Hindus are excellent people and very fair to minorities. Yet, the majority of Hindus of Gujarat being anti-minority is a fact that goes back several decades to 1947, including the lifetime of Mahatma Gandhi. Even in his lifetime, in Gujarat Gandhi was less popular among Hindus than Vallabhbai Patel. More institutions in Gujarat are named after Sardar Patel than after Gandhi.

b. The pre-BJP Congress in Gujarat too catered to pro-Hinduttava sentiments; although they were not militant against Muslims & Christians.

c. The population of Muslims in Gujarat is barely 9%; most of them live in urban areas; very few live in rural areas. So their electoral weight is not much.

d. Modi and his cohorts have greatly exploited all ugly incidents happening in India as being the handiwork of Pakistan that shares its border with Gujarat.


He has totally brainwashed Gujarati Hindus against Muslims and has put fear of Muslims in their minds by years of continual degrading statements against Muslims.


Look how in the current election he exploited the name of Ahmad Patel as Mian Ahmad Patel and said that Congress wants to make a Mian the chief Minister of Gujarat. Was that not fear mongering?

e. Modi did bring significant development in industries & infrastructure in Gujarat

f. Majority of Gujarati Hindus do not pay that much attention to the human rights of Muslims, whom Modi has painted as evil.

g. Despite all this, Modi's BJP won 115 Assembly seats in 2012 against 117 in 2007, and 127 in 2002 - a continuing decline in seats won. He fell much short of his own 2012 target of 125 seats in the Gujarat Assembly.

It is true that if Congress had tried substantially harder and had spent much more money, they could have won another 5 to 10 seats. With their all-India calculation of money and strategy for 2014 and knowing well that they were not going to get seats more than or equal to Modi's BJP, they choose not to make Gujarat election a do- or- die contest. Muslims will like Congress to make a do- or- die issue of Gujarat because of Modi's 2002 atrocities, but Congress does not think in those terms.


Does not BJP adopt a similar strategy in Assam, Bengal, UP, AP or such other states where their opponents are very strong? So this is real politic.

The Muslim community should analyze the facts and circumstances of the 2012 election before swallowing an incredible/emotional line that someone may give us.

Muslims have to learn how to deal with Congress and how to pressurize it for the interests of the community but they should not hit Congress in the face.


Muslims have electoral strength in Assam, Bengal, Bihar, UP, Kerala, and some parts of AP, Karnatak and Maharashtra. In other states (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Orissa, Tamil Nadu, small NE states) their population is about 5% (9% in Gujarat). So they have to strategize accordingly.

In the post Gujarat election, Muslims have to develop a strong all-India strategy to isolate Modi in Gujarat state and not let him be a leader anywhere outside Gujarat. That should be their clear target.



The writer is Washington based activist. He can reached at




Home | Top of the Page


Note: By posting your comments here you agree to the terms and conditions of

Comments powered by DISQUS



More Headlines

RTI activist in Andhra given poison shot

Huge haul of explosives in Hyderabad, two held

Supreme Court continued its judicial activism

Judiciary must stand up to public scrutiny: Author Dilip D'Souza

Delhi rape protest cannot be ignored

'Worst Communicators of the Year' award should go to government

I pushed a Muslim, says NY woman who shoved to death an Indian

Fair to women and East Asians Moustaches wars not

Sorry, but I prefer my toilets to be unintelligent

Yes, you are being filmed, even if you are in India


Top Stories

Gang-rape victim quietly cremated; protests continue

A fortnight after her savage gang-rape singed the collective conscience of the nation and plunged it into unprecedented anguish and anger, the battered body of the young woman was   »

India grieves as rape victim loses battle for life

Hundreds demand stricter anti-rape laws


  Most Read

I pushed a Muslim, says NY woman who shoved to death an Indian

A 31-year-old woman suspected of shoving an Indian immigrant in front of a subway train has been charged with second-degree murder as a hate crime after she told the police that she hated Hindus and Muslims since 9/11. Prosecutors Saturday identified the woman, who allegedly shoved India-born  »

India can never reach its full potential with women living in fear: NYT

As the American media kept up prominent coverage of the tragic saga of an Indian gang-rape victim, a leading US daily said the rising economic power "can never reach its full potential if half its population lives in fear of unspeakable violence". In an editorial under the title "Rape in the World's  »


  News Pick

Indian math genius Ramanujan's theory finally proved right

Mathematicians from a US university have finally solved a cryptic puzzle renowned Indian mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan claimed came to him in his dreams while  »

Ban skirts as school uniform: BJP legislator

A BJP legislator in Rajasthan wants the state government to prohibit private schools from making girls wear skirts as uniform, citing it as the reason behind increased cases of sexual harassment. Banwari Lal Singhal, in his letter  »

India needs soul searching, says Hindu religious leader

US-based religious leader Rajan Zed Saturday urged India to do serious soul searching on the way it treats women after the gang-rape victim died in Singapore. "India could not even provide safer environment for her own women to go   »

2006 Malegaon blast case: NIA makes first arrest

The National Investigation Agency (NIA) on Saturday made its first arrest in connection with the 2006 Malegaon bombing after  »

NIA to arrest Samjautha accused in 2006 Malegaon blast case


Picture of the Day

Artists performing dance drama based on the ‘Geetgovindam’, by Shri Jayadev, at the inauguration of the 60th Annual Arts Festival, at Kalakshetra, Chennai on December 21, 2012.


Recommend the story to your friends



RSS  |  Contact us


| Quick links



Subscribe to

Ummid Assistant



Science & Technology



About us




Government Schemes










Contact us


The Funny Side

Education & Career

    Disclaimer | Terms of Use | Advertise with us | Link Exchange is part of the Awaz Multimedia & Publications providing World News, News Analysis and Feature Articles on Education, Health. Politics, Technology, Sports, Entertainment, Industry etc. The articles or the views displayed on this website are for public information and in no way describe the editorial views. The users are entitled to use this site subject to the terms and conditions mentioned.

© 2012 Awaz Multimedia & Publications. All rights reserved.