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Although a cabinet reshuffle usually
arouses more hope than what it fulfils, it is still awaited with
eager anticipation because of the promise of a new beginning. This
time, however, the exercise has been a disappointment because of
the tepid nature of the changes.
If the expectations were high earlier, the reason was the belief
that Manmohan Singh's endeavour would be bold enough to dispel the
impression of a government more concerned with fending off
opposition attacks on the various scams than in outlining
distinctive, even audacious, policy directions.
Not surprisingly, therefore, speculation was rife of major changes
at the top starting with the induction of the prime minister's
economic adviser C. Rangarajan or Planning Commission deputy
chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia as the new finance minister in
place of Pranab Mukherjee. The step would have seemed logical
since the corporate sector's expectations about more energetic
economic reforms in the absence of the Left had not been met.
In the event, not only was there no redistribution of portfolios
among the Big Four - finance, home, defence and external affairs -
but no changes at all. It is probably for the first time ever that
a reshuffle has taken place where the ministers have only been
moved around like pawns on a chessboard with no one being dropped
or dramatically elevated. It is almost as if the Congress is too
weighed down by all the criticism as well as the grim possibility
of a stalled parliament to take any step which will entail the
slightest political risk.
The preference for maintaining the status quo is all the more
strange considering the prime minister has promised a "more
expansive exercise" after the budget. Since the remark suggests
that he believes there is scope for a major shake-up, the waiting
period of a few months can seem like a pointless marking of time.
In any event, it will mean that none of the ministers will be able
to settle down to their new assignments since they cannot be sure
that they will remain in their present positions for long. As
such, there does not seem to have been any pressing need for the
mid-week rejig. Instead of energising the ministers, it will
probably make some of them more listless because of the perceived
snubs.
Nationalist Congress Party's (NCP) Praful Patel, for instance, may
be miffed over the loss of the high-profile civil aviation
ministry despite his elevation to the cabinet rank since the new
portfolio of heavy industries does not have the same status. It is
possible that Air India's continuing losses played a part in
Patel's transfer.
Similarly, Kamal Nath's claim he does not regard being moved from
highways and road transport to urban development as either
promotion or demotion means that he really sees it as the latter.
The reason is that ever since the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government
initiated the Golden Quadrangle project to link the four corners
of the country by expressways, the ministry dealing with highways
has acquired considerable importance because of the high ambition
of the venture and the scope of corruption, which has led to the
ministry being derisively called an ATM, providing instant cash.
Murli Deora too is likely to see the shift from petroleum and
natural gas, which are almost always in the news, to corporate
affairs as a step downwards. So will former Maharashtra chief
minister Vilasrao Deshmukh from the low key heavy industries to an
even lower key rural development and panchayati raj. Former chief
election commissioner M.S. Gill's transfer from the sports
ministry to statistics and programme implementation may not have
anything to do with his promise to make the Commonwealth Games as
feisty and colourful as a Punjabi wedding, but he will certainly
be much less in the limelight.
There is upward mobility too, for some. Vyalar Ravi, for instance,
has been given the additional charge of civil aviation apart from
retaining his earlier portfolio of overseas Indian affairs while
Jaipal Reddy has moved to petroleum and natural gas from urban
development. NCP's Sharad Pawar, however, can be said to have
stayed at the same level although he lost the food portfolio
because he had requested the prime minister to lighten his burden
after becoming chairman of the International Cricket Council.
Even more than these ups and downs, what was noteworthy was that
the portfolios of the Congress' two major allies, the Trinamool
Congress and the DMK, remained untouched. Rumours that Trinamool
will get an additional cabinet post, apart from the railway
ministry which is under its chief Mamata Banerjee, were proved
wrong.
Since both West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are going to the polls this
summer, the prime minister is evidently waiting for the election
results to be out before taking any steps. The DMK, of course, has
been so much under a cloud because of the charges against former
telecom minister Andimuthu Raja on the 2G spectrum scam that it
doesn't seem to have made any demands at all although the
possibility of the induction of T.R. Baalu, a former minister, was
briefly mentioned.
But, as is obvious, all these comings and goings have the hallmark
of timidity, as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has alleged, with
no major implications. From this standpoint, the reshuffle was a
virtual non-event.
(Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst. He can be
reached at aganguli@mail.com)
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