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New Delhi: The Indian
economy is expected to grow 8.6 percent this fiscal against 8
percent in the previous year, led by 11 percent growth in
services, 5.4 percent in agriculture and 8.8 percent in factory
output, the country's chief statistician said Monday.
As per fresh estimates released by the Central Statistical
Organisation (CSO), the gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 8
percent last fiscal and 6.8 percent in 2008-09. The latest
estimate for the current fiscal is also higher than 8.5 percent
forecast by the central bank.
The country's GDP at factor cost at constant 2004-05 prices is
likely to reach Rs.4,879,232 crore (over $1,072 billion) in fiscal
2010-11 as against the quick estimate of Rs.4,493,743 crore during
the previous fiscal.
Economic growth for the first half of this fiscal is likely to be
revised downwards from 8.9 percent provisional estimate, T.C.A.
Anant, chief statistician of India, told reporters here.
"Principally, 8.9 percent data was based on what we had projected
last year. Now, the base for the previous year has slightly gone
up. So the real growth during the first two quarters will be
lower," said Anant, adding that the growth during the first half
of this fiscal was likely to be revised downward to 8.5-8.6
percent.
GDP growth for 2009-10 has been revised upwards from 7.4 percent
to 8 percent, according to the quick estimates of national income
released recently by the CSO.
A significant turnaround is seen in farm output this fiscal. The
agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is likely to show a
growth of 5.4 percent in 2010-11 as against 0.4 percent in the
previous fiscal.
The services sector that includes trade, hotels, transport and
communication, is estimated to expand 11 percent this fiscal.
Financing, insurance, real estate and business services are
expected to show a growth of 10.6 percent on the back of 14
percent growth in aggregate deposits and 22.6 percent growth in
bank credit during April-November 2010.
The manufacturing sector is estimated to grow 8.8 percent while
mining and quarrying is expected to register a growth of 6.2
percent.
The per capita income in real terms is forecast to expand to
Rs.36,003 (about $790) this fiscal, compared to the estimate of
Rs.33,731 in the previous year. "The growth rate in per capita
income is estimated at 6.7 percent during 2010-11, as against the
previous year's estimate of 6.1 percent," CSO said.
Following are the growth projections for this fiscal released
Monday. Previous year's figures in brackets:
* Agriculture, forestry and fishing - 5.4 percent (0.4 percent)
* Mining and quarrying 6.2 percent (6.9 percent)
* Manufacturing - 8.8 percent (8.8 percent)
* Electricity, gas and water supply - 5.1 percent (6.4 percent)
* Construction - 8 percent (7 percent)
* Trade, hotels, transport communications - 11 percent (9.7
percent)
* Financing, insurance, real estate and business services - 10.6
percent (9.2 percent)
* Community, social and personal services - 5.7 percent (11.8
percent)
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