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Godhra tainted Modi-

Can he prove his mettle? 

Wednesday, April 15, 2009,  Abdul Hafiz Lakhani

Ahmedabad: While chief minister Narendra Modi may be the mainstay of Gujarat's electoral politics, this time round the BJP may face a tougher challenge than it has in the past. For Modi, the poster boy of the saffron brigade, it's a challenge to prove his mettle at two levels - state and national.

Modi is incharge of 78 Lok Sabha seats - 48 in Maharashtra, 26 in Gujarat, 2 in Goa and 2 in Daman, Diu and Dadra and Nagar Haveli besides campaigning for the BJP across the country. While in Gujarat, Modi faces almost no opposition as the Congress has no strong leader or organisation, in other states the social and political situation is different and he will not be able to sway the masses.

But analysts say the chief minister's acceptability as a national leader is yet to be tested and the 2002 riots continue to haunt him. In Gujarat, the selection of several 'tainted' candidates, personally chosen by Modi and the new political alignments on some seats could queer the pitch for the BJP.

The selection of candidates who have tainted backgrounds may have a limited impact on the polls but that would depend on how well the Congress party can use the issue to its advantage, say analysts.. Modi has always been careful to cultivate a clean image and presented himself as non-corrupt. However, by selecting several candidates who have been involved in bank frauds and have criminal backgrounds, he may have shown a bit of desperation to win polls, they say.

Also, other parties like the Mahagujarat Janata Party, Nationalist Congress Party, and independents like Mallika Sarabhai could play spoilsport on some seats for the BJP as they would eat into its vote bank.

According to social scientist Vidyut Joshi the RSS (and sister organisations like Bajrang Dal, VHP and BKS) seem to be disenchanted with the BJP and is likely to support the MJP. "For instance in Bhavnagar, MJP president Gordhan Zadaphia and a Jan Sangh candidate will give a tough fight to Rajendrasinh Rana," he says. Joshi says the seats where the margin of victory is slim will pose a problem for the BJP.

He agrees that Modi's charisma is intact among the people and the BJP will win on his name but adds, "At the same time, the selection of several candidates with dubious backgrounds could become an issue provided the Congress can cash in on it."

Joshi also feels that there is a disintegration of the BJP's organisational structure which will be harmful to the party in the long run. "The old stalwarts have been sidelined while there is also a break up of the organisational structure."

Gujarat seems to be at the center stage this Lok Sabha elections, at least as far as the Bharatiya Janata Party is concerned. The stand-off between party titans Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh may have its roots in the Surat parliamentary constituency.

According to reliable sources, the quarrel between the two started a few months back when Modi said he wanted Jaitley to contest for the Lok Sabha from the Surat seat. This proposal was, however, rejected by party president Rajnath Singh who was keen on fielding Kashiram Rana from Surat. Singh's proposal, in turn, was flatly rejected by Modi who said party workers in the constituency would not accept Rana's candidature..

"To avoid further conflict, a neutral candidate, Darshana Jardosh, was agreed upon. She is a very committed party worker but her nomination came as a shock to everyone. Singh let go of the Rana matter so as to ensure the party's victory on this very safe seat for the BJP. Jaitley, however, does not seem to have forgotten the snub."

It is well known that Modi is not comfortable with Singh. "The Jaitley-Singh standoff was not allowed to end as keeping the quarrel alive is in interest of many. Moreover, Jaitley is eyeing the party president's post which Singh will vacate in December but Singh seems to want a second term. Their public disagreement over the appointment of businessman Sudhanshu Mittal for the north-east affairs of the BJP is perhaps only the front of a much deeper hostility going back a long way in time," the source said.

Insiders claim that the party had virtually split into two, a pro-Modi camp and an anti-Modi camp. "The split is getting pronounced with each passing day," the source said.

A senior BJP spokesperson, however, denied that Jaitley was ever meant to contest from Surat. He said that as Jaitley is a key strategist and in-charge of campaigning, the party couldn't afford to tie him down to campaigning for himself. "In addition to Bihar and Delhi, he was also given responsibility for South India by Venkiah Naidu," the BJP leader said.

Over and above the fact that Surat is a very 'winnable' seat for the BJP in this election, the fact is that the diamond hub has a very cosmopolitan electorate with migrant workers from all over the country settled there.

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