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In 2004, 38 Muslims were elected to
the Lok Sabha; in 2009 the number has gone down to 30, from 6.6% to
5.5% of its strength; Muslim deprivation level of the Muslims has
risen from 46% to 55%, as on the basis of 2001 Census Muslim
representation should be 72. Deprivation level varies from state to
state, from 0% (in J&K and Lakshadweep) to 25% to 80% in the major
states of Muslim concentration. It varies from election to election
averaging 50%. No other religious minority or the High Castes or the
Forward OBC’s are underrepresented as the Muslim Indians are.
The real tragedy lies in that the
civil society and the political establishment have deliberately
ignored this persistent patterns of deprivation, not only in the
Union Legislature but practically in all state legislatures of the
15 states in which 98% of the Muslims live. Even the academic
community is blind, deaf and dumb on this phenomenon which is
neither accidental nor irremediable. Indeed, its root lies in the
existing electoral system, though much depends on the conduct of the
secular parties and the Muslim community itself. The Muslim society
has taken note of the scattering of Muslim votes in Muslim
concentration constituencies on sectarian and baradari grounds but
no analyst or political thinker has raised his finger at the
inherent flaws in the electoral system and the anti-Muslim bias of
the secular parties.
At the top of the list is the Indian
National Congress which had fielded only 20 odd Muslim candidates in
its total of over 400, of whom 11 won. Even the Left, the second
most zealous believer in secularism, fielded only about 5% Muslim
candidates with 5 winners. The other major secular parties with the
exception of BSP in UP had also fielded very few Muslim candidates.
The result is that there were only 20 Muslim winners in the UPA list
of INC, TMC, DMK, NCP, JKNC and IUML. In addition, the BSP had 4
Muslims, the Left 4,the AIMIM 1 and the BJP 1. But the community was
greatly shocked when only 4 out of 20 have been taken in the Union
Council of Ministers plus 1 out of 13 Muslims in the Rajya Sabha,
against due share of 11 (by population) or 8 (by L. S count or 6 (by
RS plus L.S. count).
Reasons
for Underrepresentation:
It is obvious that unless secular
parties field adequate number of winnable Muslim candidates from
Muslim concentration constituencies, there is bound to be a
shortfall.
The second important reason is that
the secular parties did not reach any understanding even on Muslim
concentration seats to keep the BJP and its allies at bay. The
rivalry among the secular parties, in these seats resulted in the
victory of the third party, because, Muslim votes were inevitably
divided among the secular parties.
The third factor has already been
pointed out. Despite repeated calls, appeals and advice by the
Muslim leadership for Muslim unity, at constituency level, Muslim
voters were never fully registered or united , more so in the
constituencies of Muslim concentration. A very damaging role has
been played by some religious leaders who issued appeals in favour
of one party or the other, and religious organizations which put up
candidates, in comprehensibly in constituencies with low Muslim
concentration, against known Muslim candidates of secular parties.
Newly a dozen or more Muslim parties sprang up on the election eve
specially in UP. Even the new Muslim-core party in Assam, the AUDF,
played its card badly, it helped 2 BJP/AGP candidates to win against
INC and secured only one seat, for itself, through it was the
runner-up in several.
Many non-political Muslim
organizations which are active on the margin of politics like the
JIH, the JUH, the AIMC and the AIMMM had formulated common
principles and issued guidelines to select suitable candidates in
Muslim concentration constituencies. But actually they worked at
cross-purposes and gave confusing signals to the community. Also the
idea of the JCMOE that the local Muslim community shall select the
secular candidate whom it should vote for unitedly and massively did
not work. The result is that many experienced Parliamentarian lost
from Muslim concentration constituencies. Today, with the exception
of voters like Farooq Abdullah, Salman Khurshid and E.Ahamed who
have all been included in the government. Muslims have only
Asaduddin Owaisi from Hyderabad, Maulana Asrarul Haque Qasmi from
Kishanganj and Dr. S. R. Barq from Sambhal to raise Muslim causes.
In the 15th Lok Sabha the Muslims will
largely be voiceless; questions will not be asked. Tragic situations
will not be addressed; government decisions will not be followed up
and action will not be demanded and there shall be total silence on
the performance of various government bodies and on the progress of
various schemes. We can only hope that all Muslim MPs shall be
accessible to Muslim organizations and the Muslim ministers shall
exert their influence behind the scene in the Council of Ministers
as well as in the Cabinet for the grievances and problems of the
community being noticed.
The community is apprehensive that
this may not be happen because the MPs are, more often than not,
subject to the strict discipline of their parties. In the last
Parliament for a year and a half, no Muslim MP or Minister raised
the question that the Mishra Report, the most positive document
since independence from the Muslim point of view, be tabled and
discussed. No one asked for a report by the government on the
progress of the PM’s 15 Point Programme for the Welfare of the
Minorities or on specific initiatives taken under the Sachar Report.
The real causes are uneven physical
dispersal of the Muslims, with 6 pockets of concentration with a
total of only 30 seats, and the electoral system which goes against
the minorities and the weaker sections,and reduces the
representative credentials of our democracy as a whole and of the
legislatures.
60 years after independence the
existence of groups and sub-groups has become a fact of life with no
national party which looks after the aspirations and commands the
supports of all section of the people, in all regions of the
country.
Every party selects its candidates
preferentially from its social constituency, which forms the
dominant caste or community in a given constituency and the voters
belonging to weaker sections have no option but to vote for those.
Introduction of reservation in favour of the SC & ST was a step
forward but now we see cleavages, even within these constitutional
conglomerates, as among the Muslims and the non-Muslim Backward
Classes. In a sense, many voters exercise their franchise in favour
of candidates whom they cannot regard as a guardian of their
interests and promoter of their aspirations.
Need For
Proportional Electoral System:
This is not the occasion to dilate
upon the merits of proportional system, suffice it to say that, in
order to refine our political system and make it more representative
of the minorities and the deprived groups, to make the government
more responsive and sensitive to all sections of the people to give
all voters an equal say in the formation of the legislature and to
structure a government suitable for a plural society, so full of
diversities, there is no alternative except to introduce the
proportional system.
Coming to the Muslims the proportional
system will ensure that the Muslims are duly represented in the
legislatures through national parties or other parties of their
choice in proportion to their population. But political parties are
not inclined to change the electoral system and the weaker sections
cannot change the rule of the governance.
Reservation
For All Deprived Groups:
The alternative, therefore, is to
introduce reservation in the legislature for the groups which are
persistently underrepresented like the Muslims as well as the Most
Backward Classes. It already exists for SC & ST. Indeed the rising
to demand from all identifiable groups and sub-groups and for
categorization even among groups which enjoy reservation shows the
way the wind is blowing.
Reservation will negate to a large
extent the adverse effect of communalism and casteism and counter
the exploitation by powerful social groups to build up their
political dominance. Reservation, based on social justice, shall
construct a society in which no social group is apprehensive of
being denied its due share. With due representation of all groups
under uniform conditions of eligibility, the society shall be at
peace with itself, will generally should bias and intolerance and
work together for common good.
But reservation is legislatures alone
will not do. The deprived groups need a party which they can call
their own or a party which is truly national and is committed to
working equally for all. Need For Muslim-Core Party Already, there
are stirrings in various parts of the country for the formation of a
Muslim-core secular political party.
The unfortunate fact is that the
Muslims of J&K, the only state with a Muslim majority which could
serve as a base, confine themselves to their own problems and are
mentally detached from the rest of the Muslim Indians. Even the
great Kashmiri leader Sheikh Abdullah, who could have emerged as a
national leader, limited himself to the Valley. So did his son and
successor Farooq Abdullah, in any case he is now in the Cabinet.
Therefore, we cannot count upon the J & K National Conference to
play the role which it could in a federal set-up. We have the IUML
in Kerala which is also in the government and like the JKNC has
never ventured out of the state borders.
We are left with the AIMIM in AP which
has a history. We have two new beginnings. The Assam United
Democratic Front has the votes of the Bengali speaking Muslims and
with hard work it can establish a regional base in Assam and West
Bengal which at least 25 constituencies with 20% plus Muslim
concentration.
The second initiative has been taken
by the Popular Front of India in Kerala which has been trying to
build a base in Karnataka. And now aspires to be an All India party.
The JIH is also thinking of launching a political party. In UP,
Bihar and Jharkhand the community is deeply divided on the basis of
baradaris and maslaks but they have two pockets of concentration in
NE Bihar and West UP. For geographical and demographic reasons,
there appears to be no possibility of any other region emerging as a
major Muslim base. In the next 5 years, separate initiatives in
those zones can come together to form one political party, which
appears unrealistic. But they can by mutual agreement form a
National Front, which is feasible.
Giving the political experience of the
last 60 years, it would be too optimistic to think that even a Front
can secure a majority of the 72 Muslim concentration seats. But it
is feasible and practicable that by mutual consultation and
cooperation and for working intensively in their zones, in some
20-30 selected seats (outside J&K and Lakshadweep), in 8 or 9 states
of Muslim concentration, each political group may take charge of
about 5-6 seats for intensive mobilisation, create a political
presence, select, guide and promote potential candidates for each
seat in its charge, select one of them at time of the General
Election 2014 and help him contest as an independent. It goes
without saying that 10 independent Muslim MP’s who are committed to
serve the community and rise above the lure of office shall make a
world of difference in the Parliament in terms of highlighting the
Muslim grievances as well as pressuring the government to ameliorate
them.
Muslim
Political Convention
In the editorial for May 2009, I had
suggested that for working out the political strategy, a national
Muslim Political Convention should be organized, preceded or
followed by state political conferences in 8 or 9 states. These
conventions should be sponsored either by the AIMMM or the JCMOE or
jointly by the JIH, JUH, AIMC, AUDF and the PFI. The JKNC and the
IUML would be welcome to co-sponsor the National Convention but
being in the government they may find it difficult to do so.
The Convention should try to bring
together not only the Muslims who have won in the Lok Sabha or those
who are in the Rajya Sabha but also the ex MP’s and those who have
shown their basic strength by securing more than 100,000 votes in
their constituencies in the General Election 2009, with the
participation of Muslim political scientists, sociologists and
journalists, and perhaps also some potential philanthropists. This
will work out the long term strategy.
The Muslim Indians have to build
politically on the limited gains they have achieved in 2004-09; they
have to educate the public opinion, on the basis of Mishra Report,
in favour of reservation not only in public employment and
education, but also in legislatures. They have to set up though
local conventions political bases in Assam-West Bengal, UP, Bihar-Jharkhand,
Kerala-Karntaka-AP and Target 30 Muslim concentration constituencies
for 2014.
The Muslim Indians should never ask
for any concession or privilege but demand just and equitable share
for all deprived groups, in the parliament and in the country at
large and systemic institutional and structural reforms which will
transform the life of the common man and realize all that Freedom
promised. They should also address national issues like Federalism,
Small States, Universal Reservation, Powers for the Panchayats,
Constitutional, Electoral, Judicial and Administrative Reforms,
Direct Financial Support for BPL Families and Free Universal
Secondary Education etc and place their views before the nation. In
the short term, we have to make do with what we have.
Muslim organizations should eschew the
quest of credit and build and nurture a common front to act as a
pressure group, in the absence of a Muslim-core political party. The
Muslim MP’s should revive the Muslim Parliamentary Forum, and
establish a small office with experienced staff to prepare
background papers, notes and briefs as well as draft parliamentary
questions and statements, not only for the Muslim MPs but also other
secular MPs. This Forum and pressure group are essential because the
community shall continue to face setbacks and injustice and must
receive due attention of the nation and the government. Only MPs can
raise the matter in the highest Panchayat of the country and force
the government to table reports, provide information and take action
and only organisations are mobilize the people.
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